Starting Shot for Chase Season 2015 Closing In

As of 12 AM this morning, we sit poised 19 days away from the opening of chase season. The current pattern does not appear overly favorable for convection before the last week and a half of February, but a potential pattern shift with the omega block breaking down and west coast troughing beginning might in the works about 10 days down the line (only the most accurate data known to man /s). Obviously this is wishful thinking, but an early return to troughing on the west coast with the main flow branch being shunted northward a bit would be a welcome change to the relatively dull temperature roller-coaster that has been February so far.

A lot of my first chases of the year have tended to come earlier rather than later (March 2, February 9, and March 15 respectively) over the past three seasons but I also hold no illusions to the likely quality of any setup that may present itself. A tornado before April would be quite the surprise at this point. But maybe I'll get lucky with a good supercell before too long a la 2012.

Under a Month to Chase Season 2015

We're rounding third and heading for home with chase season 2015 now only 28 days away, coinciding with the start of meteorological spring. While nothing is jumping out within the range of reason going into February, measurable rainfall across the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma from .5 to .75" being reported by Oklahoma and West Texas Mesonet sites. It's unlikely that there will be a chaseable setup in the near future but I'm still gonna be looking to the near future for that first digging shortwave.

Warmer Days Across the Plains

In classic southern Plains fashion, a warmer airmass continues to sit over the region in late January. Yesterday saw upper 70s across much of central Oklahoma and even low 80s further west near Childress up to Mangum. Further west onto the High Plains looks to be even warmer than yesterday along with Norman flirting with the upper-70s again. Per usual, the nice temps are going away starting Thursday along with a possibly large amount precipitation across southern Oklahoma as the thermal ridge currently over the High Plains/southern Plains begins to break down. The 2015 chase season is still sitting about a month away but with the Texas PH receiving a bit of extra support in terms of precip due to the recent major snow event and a possible second winter weather event, I'm somewhat confident an early season setup or two may provide itself out west in the Panhandles region but that still seems like a very distant possibility.

The Hidden Blocking Pattern

Once again, the hope that springs eternal was shot down after perusing the Euro and GFS to around 5-6 days out (yes I know, only the most accurate data comes from there). Towards the end of this week going into next, a rather unfavorably strong thermal/mid-level ridge looks to set up shop over the Four Corners and fringes of the High Plains. The problem with this is twofold:

1. A lack of decent precipitation is possible across the southern High Plains once this pattern sets up

2. It may start the dreaded east coast troughing that will likely lead to repeated scourings of the GOM with each impulse that rides the roller coaster.

While little is certain at this range and beyond, the trend towards that solution kind of sucks . The last time the CONUS was tossed into this pattern, the season started off at a snail's pace with moisture struggling to get north due to repeated sweeping fronts on the heels of larger upper-level features to the east.

Less than 50 Days Until Chase Season

Well folks we're finally rolling into the last and worst part of the offseason. We've hit a mere 46 days until the start of chase season 2015 on March 1st and as of right now, this winter pattern is already looking like a stark improvement to where we were last January. A much more "fluid" meridional flow regime is overspreading the CONUS with multiple troughs rapidly ejecting into the Atlantic each week. Last season, a stagnant blocking pattern with an almost constant east coast trough spelled doom for the early season as repeated polar intrusions into the southern Plains and GOM annihilated moisture and set the start of spring-esque patterns back a few weeks.

As of right now, Bessie, the ever reliable and unkillable 95 Jeep Grand Cherokee, has yet to receive the Aquapel application for the windshield or the new in-car tablet feature with a portable USB computer to negate having to lug a laptop and all the wires into the passenger seat of the Jeep. Outside the vehicle, my tripod still has a bad case of the "drop my central rod" syndrome and I'm still gonna be working with a meh camera this season. But the season continues to blessedly draw nearer and the annual promise of tornadoes somewhere on the Plains in March has me excited.

2014 Gets the Last Laugh

In something reminiscent of my early days of chasing in the late-2000s, nature decided to spit out what seems to be the final surprise of 2014 long after I had thrown in the towel and flown home. A powerful stacked low set up over the far eastern Panhandles/SW KS on Sunday with modest moisture (~50F) wrapped up around the sfc low in a beautiful dryline arc. While instability issues did plague this setup, as was shown in how elongated many of the storms were, a few weak tornadoes were spat out near Apache and Arcadia before the big kahuna landed near Harper, KS at dusk. For a day like this, a big ass tornado popping out of what appeared to be a multicell cluster was confusing as hell. So far as I know, no chasers that picked the KS target got it but it still just makes me wonder what the hell was going on. This:

Managed to produce this:

It would seem as though this season has some malicious intent to humble chasers even after the spinning water vapor smorgasbord of June on the northern Plains/High Plains. Thankfully the models appear to all be hinting at a highly-amplified, meridional flow regime over the US for the next 240 hours with a trough starting at the top in the PNW and riding the rollercoaster down into the deep South. Another blast of cold across most of the CONUS seems to be a pretty likely possibility and with it, hopefully some rain/or snowfall across the southern Plains between CDS-LTS-SPS as well as the area up by Arnett.

I have a rudimentary at best knowledge of the Arctic Oscillation and El Nino/La Nina, but indications and predictions of a cold and wet winter across the High Plains in the Panhandles/far western OK/W KS are more than welcome after the previous seasons bordering on dormancy in those areas. The drought has most noticeably affected the Panhandle's tornado/supercell count over the previous three years as the dryline mixes rapidly east due to the bone dry conditions out that way. With any luck, continued rain will allow for an earlier season out in the PH similar to something like 2007 or 2010 which had decent March and April dryline days. Hard to believe we're almost to Christmas and are running closer and closer to only two months until the opening of the 2015 chase season.

If I don't update again in the near future, happy Hannukah/Kwanza/Christmas/Festivus/Pastafarian Holiday and pray OU doesn't get mauled as badly as I think they are in the Russell Athletic Bowl.

Start of Meteorological Winter

The first day of meteorological winter is gone and in it's wake it looks like the temperature across the southern Plains will rise along with the chance of precipitation for an extended period of time from Wednesday through Saturday. The drought in NW Oklahoma took a massive hit from all the rain they received in October as well as the TX Panhandle which has had decent drought removal from where it was 3 months ago. There are still about 3 months until the start of the 2015 chase season, but this offseason has already gone by faster than the past two years. Hard to believe it's already below 90 days.

Exams and working back home in Ohio for a month are on the horizon so updates may be few and far between for most of December, but the regularly programmed bitching and moaning about lack of tornadoes/storms should resume around mid-January.