2012: Year of Fallen Expectations

Its that time of year folks, where the bitching and whining begins about how mediocre this chase season was. After one of the quietest Junes I've ever seen there doesn't look to be any good setups in the next week. Technically this was one of my better seasons since I got my first two tornadoes this year, my plains trip in, as well as some of the best structure I've seen whilst chasing but the year lacked a lot in terms of overall good setups. It basically hinged on two days: March 2nd and April 14th. I chased the 2nd and got a  tornado in Kentucky but never have I seen a year with only two outbreaks even after May and most of June. Of course there were other big days, May 19th in south-central Kansas, May 25th in western Kansas, May 30th in central Texas, June 5th  in Montana and so on. But the biggest issue was the number of big bust days. Even with all the ingredients in place (strong shear, moderate-high instability, great moisture and modest lift) days still busted like its 1988. We had the fewest confirmed tornadoes in May in history. We have yet to hit 1000 tornadoes even (we're currently at 841 reported) and its the end of June almost. The cap won over on a lot of setups along with moisture being mixed out early. This year almost reminds me of 2009, but I've been hearing a lot of comparisons to 2006 (I wouldn't know considering I didn't get into chasing until roughly 2-3 years later). The only good thing to be considered is this:
-I got tornadoes for the first time this season
-Big seasons "usually" come after weaker seasons and I'll be out on the Plains for school next year

All in all, I can't complain about it too much but a far more active season would have been appreciated. This season also saw another uptick in anti-chaser articles and other such bullshit, but hopefully it'll blow over now that the season has taken such a downward spiral. Below are some of the best images from the season:
                                         
                          Southern supercell near Long Ridge, KY. March 2

                         Rope tornado near Long Ridge, KY. March 2

                        Rope tornado near Long Ridge, KY. March 2

                         Supercell 1 south of Russell, KS. May 25

                        Supercell 1 south of Russell, KS. May 25

                         Supercell 2 with tornado east of LaCrosse, KS. May 25

                        Contrast shot showing tornado east of LaCrosse. May 25

                         Contrast shot of tornado east of LaCrosse. May 25

                         Multicell rain shaft/microburst S. NE. May 27

                         Multicell rain shaft/microburst S. NE. May 27

                         Closeup of dust being kicked up. S. NE. May 27

                       Rain shaft north of Wilber, NE. May 27

                       Rain shaft/elevated updraft base. Lincoln, NE. May 27

                       Updraft towers. Lincoln, NE. May 27

                        Mammatus. Hays, KS. May 25

                        Mammatus. Hays, KS. May 25

                         Mammatus. Hays, KS. May 25

First Tornado of 2012!

Hey all! As the title states I just got my first tornado! I was out chasing with Brandon and Ryan on Friday in northern Kentucky as tornadic supercells were ravaging southern Indiana. We caught the storm near Owenton that produced some strong tornadoes across the river. This tornado did damage to Martin Stables up the road on 127 and stayed on the ground for 5 miles after it became rain-wrapped. The NWS in Wilmington rated it as an EF2.

New Site

Hey all, been awhile since my last blog post but I just opened up a new site with Nate Curtis. If you're interested here's the link: Tornado Handoff

Also I got my first "chase" of the season on Thursday night. Brandon, Ryan and I all ventured down to Kentucky on the ill-fated, over hyped setup that was February 23rd. We didn't get into Kentucky well after sunset but ended up catching one of two severe thunderstorms that night south of Owenton. It was a rough chase because of poorly gridded roads and lots of trees but we got some awesome lightning and thunder out of the storm before it passed. All in all, not a bad start to the season!

Chase Season 2012: Countdown

As the countdown clock noted, we have roughly 18 days or so until the meteorological spring and chase season 2012 begin. Its kind of hard to believe how close we are considering its cold and windy enough to rip the stubble right off my face. If the GFS stays true to itself from the past couple of 12/00Z runs then the Midwest/Plains will be in the freezer box for another few weeks at least. But relief is on the way. This chase season is shaping up to be my best yet, considering I'll have a car and a some better technology at my disposal. I've been piddling around in terms of looking for a job, but I am starting to buckle down in an attempt to at least get $3000 put away for the first half of chase season. I re-did the costs this year and it comes out to this:

Gas per chase: $100-$150
Internet from April-August: $250
Registration for Indiana Svr Symposium: $35
New site domain: $77.95
Food/Drinks per chase: $50

So if I chased 15 times this year, that'd come out to roughly $3250 just for chasing expenses. But this is all hypothetical and assumes that I'll be doing a lot of long distance chasing. I'd guess the actual expenses for just chasing will be in the $2750 ballpark but thats just me. The registration for the severe symposium and new site domain run about $112. So if I kept a minimum wage job from the second to last week of February to May 1st and worked 20 hours a week I'd only make it to $1305 and I'd prolly spend at least half so $652. If I upped that to 30 hours a week and worked from the second to last week of February to say...the end of the school year/third week of May I'd get $2827 which would definitely fund my chasing. I could swap certain chase days with people at work and that'd get me the money I needed to at least get 10 chases.

So my plan is basically set, work at least 13 weeks/rest of the school year and gain enough money to fund myself from April through the summer hopefully.

Heartbreak and High Pressure

Yeah I know, the title of this one is pretty lame but I don't have the spirit to be witty with anything after this past playoff game. The Bengals took on the Houston Texans in the first round of playoff games earlier today and got their asses handed to them on a platter 31-10. I have now seen the Bengals go to the playoffs three times and they still have yet to ever win a first round game. Although 2005 and 2009 were bad enough, this year really hurt considering we were playing the HOUSTON TEXANS. For christ sake, we were playing a team that won the worst division in the AFC with a third-string quarterback. But as people have been saying, its a young team and expecting a playoff win out of them was a tall order (still just as pissed about this though).

But moving on to actual weather stuff, its been a really quiet week going into today with almost no snow or rain or anything across the US. The next system won't start swinging in until Tuesday and it doesn't look at all impressive until it meets a second low in the northeastern states late in the week. People were hinting at a severe threat for the deep south on Tuesday, but the 12Z run of the NAM basically shot that right in the foot with the center of the low being to far north. On the plus side, its been in the upper to mid 50s the past couple of days which has made January a lot more bearable than usual. We only have 52 days until the chase season starts on March 1st and hopefully this nice weather will help speed things up.

A Misconception of Chasing: Science and Saving Lives

So recently I saw people getting their undies in a knot because I said that anybody who deludes themselves into thinking they're chasing for science or to save lives is full of it.This is a piggyback off of part of my last rant earlier in December. I thought it'd be prudent to get my point across before it turns uglier.

To start off, lets look at the whole "I chase to save lives" deal. I think this quote sums up the mentality of a good 95% of chasers. It comes from a piece by Tim Marshall on chasing pioneer Roger Jensen:

"I will never forget what Roger told me why he photographed storms all of his life: "Gosh, it's for the awe at what you are seeing. I was born loving storms."

That quotation basically sums it up. Like I said in the other post, storm chasing is a selfish pursuit. Spotters are there to "save lives"/report severe weather or something of the like. Chasers are a totally different breed. The goal is to observe convective weather, to photograph it or record it, to just have that experience. No chaser goes out looking to simply report tornadoes, hail, or damaging winds. They may help if they come across damage and many will report severe weather phenomena if they get the chance but its important to remember that it's not the primary objective of a chaser. I've never seen someone say "going out to save lives today". But then again, I don't know everyone in the community so its possible that some people do go out with the sole objective of saving lives (how they do that I'm not quite sure). If you set that as your goal, then more power to you, but this whole belief that chasing is turning sour or someone is doing it wrong  because they're not solely dedicated to saving people is pure BS. 

Now that the first part of the rant is over, lets delve into the second part: chasing for science. This motivation is almost as frequently used as the chasing to save lives version. A lot of the time, newer chasers will say they chase for science to make themselves seem more important or more impressive to the people around them. This may impress the general populace but its a fallacy. Mounting a little weather station on your car does not mean you're chasing for science. It would have to benefit the scientific community by making some new discovery and the likelihood of that happening is less than zero. Field studies such as VORTEX2 and ROTATE were chasing for science. They were gathering data that had actual use in solving some of the more baffling aspects of microscale events in supercells. Unless you're part of one of those government or university field studies, please, for the sake of all of us, stop using  "I chase for science". 

If my post has offended anyone, I apologize right now. Feel free to berate me in the comments section but I'm sticking to my opinion. I'm not necessarily saying I'm right but I think I've made a valid argument. If you're interested on reading more about Roger Jensen follow the link below:
http://www.stormtrack.org/jensen/

James

A Personal Rant

Well the polar air mass in Canada is supposed to start dipping down over most of the central states towards the eastern seaboard:


Although the winter has been slow to kick off so far it prolly won't stay that way going into next week. Looks like lower 30s during the day and the lower 20s at night. In short, everything I hate about winter.

But life goes on. I'm finishing up my first semester of my senior year in high school. I've only got about 2 months and 3 weeks until the chase season starts again and I need to find a source of income so I can supply not only a trip to the Plains but chasing period. I have more of a shortage of time than an excess of it. Words cannot express how much I want out of high school at this point.

Storm chasing is becoming such an overriding factor in my life that the rest seems just like extra details. One of the other numerous reasons is that people just don't get it. As fun and awesome as storm chasing is, there's not too many people to share my interest with around here. As far as I know I'm the only actual chaser in the city (probably not the only one though). Even though I've shown how much chasing is pivotal in my life my parents still like to make it out like I'm a total n00b and tell people I "wanna be just like the guys on the Discovery Channel". Comical considering I stopped watching that TV show awhile back and have absolutely no desire to emulate what Reed Timmer, Sean Casey and Tim Samaras are like (though I still hold high respect for Tim Samaras and Sean).This is one of the many reasons that I  honestly don't like to talk about chasing with people who aren't also interested in weather. Its pointless, plain and simple. If they show interest, its only fleeting and they immediately associate you with the ones they see on TV with the armored cars barreling down a road at a tornado. Other "chasers" (and I use that term very loosely in this case) my age, seem to believe if they boast about it to enough people, post enough statuses about they're exploits, make fun of people who are scared of storms, and copy what they see on TV and label it as "for the advancement of science and the saving of lives" they will be seen as these demigod figures doing battle with the convective powers that be. Any attention they may garner from this chest bumping fades. I think Dan Robinson had a blog post about this. The truth is NOBODY CARES. The average Joe doesn't care that you've seen 10 tornadoes, he doesn't care how many people you "saved" by chasing and so on. He only cares about the weather for today and tomorrow. Whether it will rain or not, whether it will snow or not, the temperature. That's it. They may show initial interest but its just something cool they've run into and have no real interest in.

As long as I'm ranting, I may as well get one more thing off my chest. If I hear "I chase to save lives" one more time I'm gonna throttle the closest person. Chasing does not save lives no matter what people believe. Chasers may help in the warning process if they get the chance to report something, but we're just that, part of the warning process. Storm chasing isn't a life saving endeavor, it is a selfish pursuit. People chase to get photos or video of a storm or maybe just a romanticized experience with nature. In short, you chase for yourself.

Now that that's over with, 83 days to chase season!