Friday, March 1, 2013
Welcome to Chase Season 2013!
We have just crossed the threshold into what I consider the start of chase season 2013. While Oklahoma and the rest of the Plains remain the in the grip of winter for the near future, the ensemble from the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a significant pattern shift that could bring more spring-like weather to the southern Plains heading into mid-March. Hopefully this occurs before I head off on spring break but either way it'll be nice to see some decent moisture return for the first time in a long time if this pans out. I'm extremely excited for the start of chase season and here's hoping we get some good setups heading into the early part of the season!
Friday, February 22, 2013
March Fast Approaching
Hard to believe there's only a mere 6 days left until March is here. We're currently sitting in a very active meridional flow regime with system after system coming off the Pacific coast roughly ever other day. While the long-range models don't show any particularly promising pattern shift for severe weather any time soon, this current pattern is excellent for helping to alleviate some of the impacts of the severe drought across the southern plains, especially in SW Kansas and W Oklahoma. This is nowhere near a drought buster pattern, considering how severe the drought still is, but some snow pack and rain every few days should help prevent some of the moisture problems setups had out here last year when the severe weather season hits its stride.
In other news, all the gear is cleaned up and "refurbished" after the marginal chase bust in the Texas panhandle earlier in February. Finally found my pack of spare batteries that were hidden deep within the confines of my dorm room last week, which could have saved me ten bucks if I had remembered where I put the damn things earlier. But I'm already looking forward to what promises to be a great season, and hopefully another early one considering my current position. I'll only be out here until the second week of May and after that I'm tied down to a job and summer classes back home for the rest of the season. Hopefully April and the first week of May come up big or I may be suffering through a bad year (looking at you 2011).
So here's to the 2013 chase season, hope it rocks.
In other news, all the gear is cleaned up and "refurbished" after the marginal chase bust in the Texas panhandle earlier in February. Finally found my pack of spare batteries that were hidden deep within the confines of my dorm room last week, which could have saved me ten bucks if I had remembered where I put the damn things earlier. But I'm already looking forward to what promises to be a great season, and hopefully another early one considering my current position. I'll only be out here until the second week of May and after that I'm tied down to a job and summer classes back home for the rest of the season. Hopefully April and the first week of May come up big or I may be suffering through a bad year (looking at you 2011).
So here's to the 2013 chase season, hope it rocks.
Sunday, February 10, 2013
February 9 2013 Chase Log
February 9 2013
James Gustina
Summary: The opening of my 2013 chase season. Marginal day with the possibility of supercells and isolated tornadoes along the Caprock. Chased with Brady Kendrick, Jon Stone, and Zach Elliot. Targeted Childress, TX ahead of the dryline but poor moisture return plagued this setup and storms ended up going after dark. Got some large hail out of it (golf ball to tennis ball sized) as well as some fun encounters with tumbleweeds on country roads.
The GFS had picked up on this day about 300 hourss out, albeit it with significant details still question marks. A positive/neutral trough was progged to come swinging through the southern plains with an attendant 80-90 knot jet streak rounding the base of the trough some time between 18 and 21Z. Moisture was set to hit the mid-60s with a modest shear environment. The day of things had changed drastically, with the dryline setting up west of I-27 and moisture return being a serious problem on the Caprock. The shear environment still looked great with backed surface winds by 12Z with significant veering with height.
The night before I planned to chase with Brady Kendrick and Jon Stone. The tentative target was Childress where it looked like the best shear/moisture/MLCAPE would be. The morning of dews were barely hitting the lower to mid 30s in the southern panhandle.
We ended up rolling out of Norman around 11:30 that morning and after picking up Zach Elliot headed for Childress. We made a few brief stops, including at two abandoned bridges near Snyder, Oklahoma and in Hollis to check out a cool abandoned gas station.
After about twenty minutes of shooting we headed back out and ended up in Childress by 3. We grabbed lunch at Dairy Queen, something I hadn't been able to have since last July before I left for OU. We mulled over a CU field that had developed over the central panhandle just ahead of the dryline on I-27.
We decided to reposition to the north a bit as small showers popped up in the CU field. Unfortunately nothing was able to become rooted to the boundary layer and they ended up fizzling. We moved on through Memphis and then stopped a bit west of Memphis for a good while until sunset.
While we were sitting there Wesley Luginbyhl showed up and we chatted for a bit. We ended up heading back into Memphis to the Love's and grabbing some food. The general consensus was that storms would fire at some point after nightfall as the cold front and forcing caught up to the dryline. Sure enough, after about 45 minutes in Love's storms went up to our northwest near Clarendon. Unlike the earlier convection, the new storms actually got rooted and due to the favorable shear environment, got some weak mid-level rotation going. We blasted northwest towards Clarendon to get in the spot in case it decided to get its act together at the lower-levels. Unfortunately it never did but after playing chicken with it for about 15 minutes we got cored with some quarter sized stones. We hopped back on US 287 and went back towards Hedley and Memphis. At our second stop we tried again to get a view towards the updraft but the lightning was mostly cloud-to-cloud making it difficult. Shortly thereafter the bigger hail finally caught us. We estimated most of the stones were about golf ball but Brady picked up two or three dents that were at least tennis ball. After this we headed back into Hedley and then cut northeast as the storms picked back up again. Unfortunately the storms never quite got there and ended up lining out. We continued east back through Wellington and as we crossed into Oklahoma attempted to make a play on a tail-end charlie that was about to pass through Childress. That storm fizzled shortly after moving through Childress at which point we decided to call it a night. We made it back to Norman about 1 that night. Unfortunately I wasn't able to get any photos or video of the storms and the hail.
Even though the storms ended up being sub-par this was a fun way to start the season. It was still really fun to get out there again and hopefully 2013 comes out shooting when March rolls around.
Chase Stats
Miles Driven: 544
Cost: $45
Tornadoes: 0
Hail: Tennis ball (2 1/4")
Winds: None
James Gustina
Summary: The opening of my 2013 chase season. Marginal day with the possibility of supercells and isolated tornadoes along the Caprock. Chased with Brady Kendrick, Jon Stone, and Zach Elliot. Targeted Childress, TX ahead of the dryline but poor moisture return plagued this setup and storms ended up going after dark. Got some large hail out of it (golf ball to tennis ball sized) as well as some fun encounters with tumbleweeds on country roads.
The GFS had picked up on this day about 300 hourss out, albeit it with significant details still question marks. A positive/neutral trough was progged to come swinging through the southern plains with an attendant 80-90 knot jet streak rounding the base of the trough some time between 18 and 21Z. Moisture was set to hit the mid-60s with a modest shear environment. The day of things had changed drastically, with the dryline setting up west of I-27 and moisture return being a serious problem on the Caprock. The shear environment still looked great with backed surface winds by 12Z with significant veering with height.
The night before I planned to chase with Brady Kendrick and Jon Stone. The tentative target was Childress where it looked like the best shear/moisture/MLCAPE would be. The morning of dews were barely hitting the lower to mid 30s in the southern panhandle.
We ended up rolling out of Norman around 11:30 that morning and after picking up Zach Elliot headed for Childress. We made a few brief stops, including at two abandoned bridges near Snyder, Oklahoma and in Hollis to check out a cool abandoned gas station.
After about twenty minutes of shooting we headed back out and ended up in Childress by 3. We grabbed lunch at Dairy Queen, something I hadn't been able to have since last July before I left for OU. We mulled over a CU field that had developed over the central panhandle just ahead of the dryline on I-27.
We decided to reposition to the north a bit as small showers popped up in the CU field. Unfortunately nothing was able to become rooted to the boundary layer and they ended up fizzling. We moved on through Memphis and then stopped a bit west of Memphis for a good while until sunset.
While we were sitting there Wesley Luginbyhl showed up and we chatted for a bit. We ended up heading back into Memphis to the Love's and grabbing some food. The general consensus was that storms would fire at some point after nightfall as the cold front and forcing caught up to the dryline. Sure enough, after about 45 minutes in Love's storms went up to our northwest near Clarendon. Unlike the earlier convection, the new storms actually got rooted and due to the favorable shear environment, got some weak mid-level rotation going. We blasted northwest towards Clarendon to get in the spot in case it decided to get its act together at the lower-levels. Unfortunately it never did but after playing chicken with it for about 15 minutes we got cored with some quarter sized stones. We hopped back on US 287 and went back towards Hedley and Memphis. At our second stop we tried again to get a view towards the updraft but the lightning was mostly cloud-to-cloud making it difficult. Shortly thereafter the bigger hail finally caught us. We estimated most of the stones were about golf ball but Brady picked up two or three dents that were at least tennis ball. After this we headed back into Hedley and then cut northeast as the storms picked back up again. Unfortunately the storms never quite got there and ended up lining out. We continued east back through Wellington and as we crossed into Oklahoma attempted to make a play on a tail-end charlie that was about to pass through Childress. That storm fizzled shortly after moving through Childress at which point we decided to call it a night. We made it back to Norman about 1 that night. Unfortunately I wasn't able to get any photos or video of the storms and the hail.
Even though the storms ended up being sub-par this was a fun way to start the season. It was still really fun to get out there again and hopefully 2013 comes out shooting when March rolls around.
Chase Stats
Miles Driven: 544
Cost: $45
Tornadoes: 0
Hail: Tennis ball (2 1/4")
Winds: None
Friday, February 8, 2013
Chase Season 2013 Opening Tomorrow
Well my season looks to be starting a little bit early this year. Heading out tomorrow on a little better than marginal chance of supercells and isolated tornadoes on the Caprock tomorrow evening. Hoping 2013 starts with a bang!
Thursday, January 31, 2013
Chase Season 2013 Fast Approaching
Roughly only 28 days until the unofficial start of the "chase season" and the meteorological spring starts. Today and yesterday marked the first widespread severe weather of the year as well as what is likely to be the first EF2+ tornado of 2013. Quite a few people already got their first chases of the year in over the past two days and the GFS has been hinting at the possibility of a more active pattern overspreading the CONUS some time in the distant future. I've already gone through all my stuff and besides some caked panhandle mud that needs to be washed off my tripod and some extra batteries everything is in working order and ready to go when the storms return to Tornado Alley for the 2013 season.
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
November 10 2012 Chase Log
November 10 2012
James Gustina
Summary: Fun bust in central Kansas with Zach Elliot, Cj Sayre and Andrew Lyons. Went out on the slight possibility of suprcells along the dryline but low instability and weak forcing precluded much of anything. Ended up hanging around with Ben Holcomb, Mike Boik, Dillon Killoren and a whole host of other people in Pratt to end the day.
This day had potential several days out. Andrew and I had been keeping an eye on it for the past week and the night before we figured out our chase plans. A deep trough was ejecting out of the Rockies with modest instability on the order of 1500 j/kg of MLCAPE. The turning in the lowest 1 kilometer was not great but enough to get the job done had any discrete storms gone up in a more favorable environment.
The morning of we rolled out of Norman around 10 with a tentative target of Alva, OK. Around noon we stopped in Watonga for lunch at Pizza Hut. Meanwhile outside tumbleweeds the size of a child were rolling all over creation.
Side Story: Sometime between Watonga and Cherokee, we went past a farm with a single horse standing alone in the field just staring at the road. We decided to name him Eddy the Awkward Horse. Eddy wasn't like the other horses, Eddy wanted to dance. This led to a whole slew of inanimate objects with dreams to break to the tedium of driving through northwestern Oklahoma.
After lunch we decided to cut north towards Cherokee. Nothing but some very flat, uninteresting CU was present just along and ahead of the dryline. Shortly after crossing into Alfalfa County we ran into Ben Holcomb and Mike Boik. We ended up sitting for awhile just off US 281.
After about 30-45 minutes we continued on with Ben and Mike to Alva. A brief stop at the McDonald's didn't help our view of the prospects. Cumulus along the dryline continued to look thin and mushy. Nonetheless the SPC threw out an MCD around the same time.
We continued north through Medicine Lodge and then through Pratt. At this point there were a few somewhat agitated towers going up. We continued north towards Great Bend, running into Dillon and a few other people on the way. Unfortunately nothing ever could quite get going. We ended up hanging around on a dirt road somewhere between Great Bend and Pratt before heading back to Pratt for dinner at Woody's.
Headed back into Pratt we noticed a large tower going up to the south. This turned out to be an LP cell that went right over where we had been earlier.
We had a fun time at Woody's, despite how it being at best, subpar. Afterwards we packed up, flashed the Dominator as it came driving through Pratt, and then were on our way back towards Wichita to cut back down onto I35 for Norman.
Chase Stats
Miles Driven: 526
Cost: $45
Tornadoes: 0
Hail: None
Winds: None
James Gustina
Summary: Fun bust in central Kansas with Zach Elliot, Cj Sayre and Andrew Lyons. Went out on the slight possibility of suprcells along the dryline but low instability and weak forcing precluded much of anything. Ended up hanging around with Ben Holcomb, Mike Boik, Dillon Killoren and a whole host of other people in Pratt to end the day.
This day had potential several days out. Andrew and I had been keeping an eye on it for the past week and the night before we figured out our chase plans. A deep trough was ejecting out of the Rockies with modest instability on the order of 1500 j/kg of MLCAPE. The turning in the lowest 1 kilometer was not great but enough to get the job done had any discrete storms gone up in a more favorable environment.
The morning of we rolled out of Norman around 10 with a tentative target of Alva, OK. Around noon we stopped in Watonga for lunch at Pizza Hut. Meanwhile outside tumbleweeds the size of a child were rolling all over creation.
Side Story: Sometime between Watonga and Cherokee, we went past a farm with a single horse standing alone in the field just staring at the road. We decided to name him Eddy the Awkward Horse. Eddy wasn't like the other horses, Eddy wanted to dance. This led to a whole slew of inanimate objects with dreams to break to the tedium of driving through northwestern Oklahoma.
After lunch we decided to cut north towards Cherokee. Nothing but some very flat, uninteresting CU was present just along and ahead of the dryline. Shortly after crossing into Alfalfa County we ran into Ben Holcomb and Mike Boik. We ended up sitting for awhile just off US 281.
After about 30-45 minutes we continued on with Ben and Mike to Alva. A brief stop at the McDonald's didn't help our view of the prospects. Cumulus along the dryline continued to look thin and mushy. Nonetheless the SPC threw out an MCD around the same time.
We continued north through Medicine Lodge and then through Pratt. At this point there were a few somewhat agitated towers going up. We continued north towards Great Bend, running into Dillon and a few other people on the way. Unfortunately nothing ever could quite get going. We ended up hanging around on a dirt road somewhere between Great Bend and Pratt before heading back to Pratt for dinner at Woody's.
Headed back into Pratt we noticed a large tower going up to the south. This turned out to be an LP cell that went right over where we had been earlier.
We had a fun time at Woody's, despite how it being at best, subpar. Afterwards we packed up, flashed the Dominator as it came driving through Pratt, and then were on our way back towards Wichita to cut back down onto I35 for Norman.
Chase Stats
Miles Driven: 526
Cost: $45
Tornadoes: 0
Hail: None
Winds: None
Sunday, January 20, 2013
October 12 2012 Chase Log
October 12 2012
James Gustina
Summary: This was a day that had considerable draw early when it began popping up on the models at the end of the week in September. Ended up catching the supercells northeast of Lubbock after nearly conceding a bust due to the late timing of the trough. Three tornadoes and some awesome structure at dusk made this my second favorite day of the year.
The GFS wiffle-waffled on it numerous times during the first week of October but it was apparent about three days out that the Texas Panhandle would be the place to be for a possible early autumn tornado setup. I was having problems finding a ride out but Zach gave me the info of a friend that had seats open. I ended up chasing with Stephen Jones (who I can't thank enough for letting me come along), Jon Stone, and Zach Biggs. We met the morning of around 8 and were on the road after a stop or two to try and get the correct wrench for a roof-mounted HAM antenna.
There was a nice shortwave with attendant cutoff low that was moving from the California coast through the desert early on the 12th.
The 12Z sounding from Odessa, which was just south of the warm front at the time, showed a stout cap and not so good shear profiles due to the upper air support still being on the Arizona/New Mexico state line. Instability further north where the better dynamics were progged was the real question mark of the day. Most people were anticipating the best storms to go up within 50 miles of the warm front where the best shear would be.
The SPC went with a broad slight risk across the western Texas panhandle and eastern New Mexico with a 5% tornado risk over the NW panhandle and parts of eastern New Mexico.
We made excellent time and made it to Amarillo around noon for lunch at Buffalo Wild Wings. At this time the warm front was still sagging considerably farther south than previously anticipated, somewhere between Plainview and Tulia. We rolled out afterwards and headed for Plainview. We got off at Plainview and joined the chaser convergence at the McDonald's for about an hour. Got to see a whole host of people and enjoyed talking over the day's setup. Small high-based showers kept going up and collapsing in the northern half of the warm sector. The trough's late arrival spelled problems for initiation of sustained convection.
Around 4 we decided to take a jaunt up to Dimmit. Some small showers were forming further to the northwest. But after we decided to move they ended up toppling just like the rest.
We were beginning to contemplate around 6 either calling it a bust shortly after or going after a supercell that was going absolutely nuts on the nose of the jet streak near Carlsbad, NM. But just as we were about to head back to the interstate surface based storms initiated just outside Lubbock. They took on the look on radar and we quickly piled back into the car and blasted back towards Plainview. The storms looked great from a distance.
After getting to Plainview, we cut south towards Hale Center. After one storm split off of the main complex, it got a brief wall cloud going. Meanwhile the second storm began to turn right and after ingesting a smaller cell started rotating like mad.
We let the left split pass over and then after cutting down the interstate got off at Hale Center and came through the hook on the backside of the right mover. It had a nice beefy updraft and wall cloud. It also put down a brief, wispy bird fart.
The tornado barely lasted 25 seconds but did mostly condense. We kept sliding forward a bit as the wall cloud cycled again and the rotation picked up. We finally let it cross the road and then re-positioned ourselves.
The old wall cloud/mesocyclone occluded and a new meso formed up further to the northeast and spat out a tiny pencil tornado which would be tornado #3. The old meso had put out a multi-vortex bowl which ended up being #2 but I wasn't able to get a good shot of it since it was on the left side of the car.
The storm rapidly declined after the third tornado. It started to ingest cooler air but was still able to keep some nice structure to it heading into dusk/night. We stopped west of Floydada and took some lightning shots as well as some cool mothership structure shots. Pardon the grainy quality of the photos, my camera tends not to handle low-light situations well.
After that we called the chase and made our way back to Amarillo. Unfortunately the Big Texan was packed and about to close so we headed to the Waffle House and enjoyed some late night waffles. I got the chance to upload some photos and shortly after we made the drive back to Norman. All in all one of the best chase days of 2012 for me.
Chase Stats
Miles Driven: 904
Cost: $50
Tornadoes: 3
Hail: Penny
Winds: 35 mph inflow
James Gustina
Summary: This was a day that had considerable draw early when it began popping up on the models at the end of the week in September. Ended up catching the supercells northeast of Lubbock after nearly conceding a bust due to the late timing of the trough. Three tornadoes and some awesome structure at dusk made this my second favorite day of the year.
The GFS wiffle-waffled on it numerous times during the first week of October but it was apparent about three days out that the Texas Panhandle would be the place to be for a possible early autumn tornado setup. I was having problems finding a ride out but Zach gave me the info of a friend that had seats open. I ended up chasing with Stephen Jones (who I can't thank enough for letting me come along), Jon Stone, and Zach Biggs. We met the morning of around 8 and were on the road after a stop or two to try and get the correct wrench for a roof-mounted HAM antenna.
There was a nice shortwave with attendant cutoff low that was moving from the California coast through the desert early on the 12th.
The 12Z sounding from Odessa, which was just south of the warm front at the time, showed a stout cap and not so good shear profiles due to the upper air support still being on the Arizona/New Mexico state line. Instability further north where the better dynamics were progged was the real question mark of the day. Most people were anticipating the best storms to go up within 50 miles of the warm front where the best shear would be.
The SPC went with a broad slight risk across the western Texas panhandle and eastern New Mexico with a 5% tornado risk over the NW panhandle and parts of eastern New Mexico.
We made excellent time and made it to Amarillo around noon for lunch at Buffalo Wild Wings. At this time the warm front was still sagging considerably farther south than previously anticipated, somewhere between Plainview and Tulia. We rolled out afterwards and headed for Plainview. We got off at Plainview and joined the chaser convergence at the McDonald's for about an hour. Got to see a whole host of people and enjoyed talking over the day's setup. Small high-based showers kept going up and collapsing in the northern half of the warm sector. The trough's late arrival spelled problems for initiation of sustained convection.
Around 4 we decided to take a jaunt up to Dimmit. Some small showers were forming further to the northwest. But after we decided to move they ended up toppling just like the rest.
We were beginning to contemplate around 6 either calling it a bust shortly after or going after a supercell that was going absolutely nuts on the nose of the jet streak near Carlsbad, NM. But just as we were about to head back to the interstate surface based storms initiated just outside Lubbock. They took on the look on radar and we quickly piled back into the car and blasted back towards Plainview. The storms looked great from a distance.
After getting to Plainview, we cut south towards Hale Center. After one storm split off of the main complex, it got a brief wall cloud going. Meanwhile the second storm began to turn right and after ingesting a smaller cell started rotating like mad.
We let the left split pass over and then after cutting down the interstate got off at Hale Center and came through the hook on the backside of the right mover. It had a nice beefy updraft and wall cloud. It also put down a brief, wispy bird fart.
The old wall cloud/mesocyclone occluded and a new meso formed up further to the northeast and spat out a tiny pencil tornado which would be tornado #3. The old meso had put out a multi-vortex bowl which ended up being #2 but I wasn't able to get a good shot of it since it was on the left side of the car.
The storm rapidly declined after the third tornado. It started to ingest cooler air but was still able to keep some nice structure to it heading into dusk/night. We stopped west of Floydada and took some lightning shots as well as some cool mothership structure shots. Pardon the grainy quality of the photos, my camera tends not to handle low-light situations well.
After that we called the chase and made our way back to Amarillo. Unfortunately the Big Texan was packed and about to close so we headed to the Waffle House and enjoyed some late night waffles. I got the chance to upload some photos and shortly after we made the drive back to Norman. All in all one of the best chase days of 2012 for me.
Chase Stats
Miles Driven: 904
Cost: $50
Tornadoes: 3
Hail: Penny
Winds: 35 mph inflow
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