State of the Chase Season
Well there's no way to really start this without saying one thing: this season has sucked. When I mean sucked, I mean it has been the worst chase season since David Hoadley started chasing way back during the early stages of the Cold War. The lack of not only tornadoes but supercells in general has been appalling. We're currently sitting at 64 tornado reports grand total for the months of March and April, with 11 in the "Traditional" Alley. My home state of Ohio has more tornadoes that Oklahoma currently and it's April 24th. While that will most certainly change this weekend, the trends have not been good. Just as every previous setup to date, the models have gone from singing high-praise to just absolutely shredding it. A mere 48 hours ago, the ECMWF and GFS were all-in on what looked to be a pretty spectacular severe weather event setting up across the central Great Plains. By today, the GFS has flip-flopped to the NAM's side with questionable moisture, capping and weak forcing for ascent all appearing along the dryline through southern Kansas into Oklahoma. It's starting to look like a distinct possibility that I will manage to not see a tornado in my brief time left on the Plains (exam week is coming in two weeks). My only hope if this weekend continues to trend down is the vaunted June period of the season back in the Midwest. While it's often ridiculed and ignored by the multitude of Plains chasers, I'd be surprised if an exodus east for some of the higher-end derecho days happened. Desperation can do some crazy things to people in this hobby.
With any luck, Saturday/Sunday will eke out a decent tube somehwere in Oklahoma or Kansas, otherwise it looks like I'm destined to have a repeat of my horrible 2013 nightmare year.