Once again, the hope that springs eternal was shot down after perusing the Euro and GFS to around 5-6 days out (yes I know, only the most accurate data comes from there). Towards the end of this week going into next, a rather unfavorably strong thermal/mid-level ridge looks to set up shop over the Four Corners and fringes of the High Plains. The problem with this is twofold:
1. A lack of decent precipitation is possible across the southern High Plains once this pattern sets up
2. It may start the dreaded east coast troughing that will likely lead to repeated scourings of the GOM with each impulse that rides the roller coaster.
While little is certain at this range and beyond, the trend towards that solution kind of sucks . The last time the CONUS was tossed into this pattern, the season started off at a snail's pace with moisture struggling to get north due to repeated sweeping fronts on the heels of larger upper-level features to the east.
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