As of 12 AM this morning, we sit poised 19 days away from the opening of chase season. The current pattern does not appear overly favorable for convection before the last week and a half of February, but a potential pattern shift with the omega block breaking down and west coast troughing beginning might in the works about 10 days down the line (only the most accurate data known to man /s). Obviously this is wishful thinking, but an early return to troughing on the west coast with the main flow branch being shunted northward a bit would be a welcome change to the relatively dull temperature roller-coaster that has been February so far.
A lot of my first chases of the year have tended to come earlier rather than later (March 2, February 9, and March 15 respectively) over the past three seasons but I also hold no illusions to the likely quality of any setup that may present itself. A tornado before April would be quite the surprise at this point. But maybe I'll get lucky with a good supercell before too long a la 2012.
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