Wednesday, March 11, 2015

2015 Becoming Chaser Purgatory

Very warm temps continue to prevail across the prairie under mostly clear skies. Norman is currently sitting at 70F per the Oklahoma Mesonet and chasers across Faecbook , Stormtrack and Twitter continue to grow antsy with each passing day of "dull" weather. The Rex block over the west coast continues to lurk throughout the majority of the reasonable forecast period with the southern branch of the split flow resulting in moisture being dammed along the Gulf coastline. The SPC reports graph shows 2015's plot as a complete flat line in terms of tornadoes since just past the second week of January with roughly 25 reports since January 1st. This has been the slowest year since 2002 in terms of overall reports, with the mean number being 146 by this point. While there is no correlation to the quality of the season, it is a bit concerning that there might not be one severe weather episode before the final week of March based on the progs. With chasers already going mad from the long off season, it could cause an enormous amount of chaser convergence on the first Plains event.

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