The Final Hurrah of 2014?

After a season fraught with horribly mixed-out moisture and troughs off in timing by about six hours, it looks like the 2014 chase season may finally be in it's death throes. After taking a dirty crap all over me the entire year, this bastardized excuse for a season may finally be over. A massive upper low spawned from the remnants of typhoon Nuri looks to swing into the Bering Strait tonight and open the gates for the Canadian cold air invasion. It's currently progged to swing through the Pacific NW and rapidly eject over the Dakotas, bringing an at least 30 degree change across the entirety of the Great Plains and Midwest. Add in the chance of snow going into the weekend, and it's looking like these two weeks of fall were just a little farewell before the arctic onslaught begins. I have never looked forward to the start of winter until now, with the hopes that a wet winter will maybe aid in reviving the almost dormant High Plains from the Panhandles up through to SW Nebraska for the 2015 season.

I was also sad to hear of Jim Leonard's passing  last week. I never had a personal interaction with or connection to him, but the loss of a pioneer who gave many chasers my age iconic videos (such as the Ft. Cobb tornado from May 3 '99) is profoundly saddening. May he rest in peace.

September 1 2014 Chase Log

I never thought I'd get a shot at a tornadic supercell once June closed out, but this past Monday actually saw a large, well structured supercell near Arkansas City, KS that I was able to chase! We ended up missing the two tornadoes that occurred just after sunset due to poor roads and an unwillingness to have to snake our way back into KS from Osage County, OK but even without the tubes this chase was a huge morale booster for what has been a shit season.

We didn't make the decision to chase until 4:15 and were out of Norman and our way for Blackwell to start. The sfc cyclone was sitting around Medford with a semi-sharp dryline and an OFB intersecting it just across the state line in KS. The 17Z sounding from Lamont was impressive, albeit with a large inversion at 700 mb. The wind profiles looked extremely favorable for at least supercells and with dewpoints kissing the lower-70s it began to seem as if LCLs wouldn't be too big of an issue. The SPC went with a SLGT across N OK with a 2% tor risk.

We watched on our way up as the first few attempts failed after going up on the northern side of boundary but by the time we hit Tonkawa full-blown CI was occurring. We decided against going after another storm that had just exploded farther west near Fairview on the dryline for the now strengthening supercell riding the OFB and undergoing a cell merger. As we closed in across the state line we got a view of the storm's base. From there, the chase only went up.

We were busting it east on US 166 and the storm was almost at a standstill making it easy to find a spot to get a good view of the storm's updraft base. We took a road that lead north towards Geuda Springs and sat for a good 15 minutes watching the best supercell that any of us had seen this season.

We noted rapid rising motion/lazy rotation on the right side and after reporting to SN watched the first RFD surge and occlusion. The lowering on the right got some decent spin going but alas nothing ever got close to touching. 

The storm had begun to drift ESE so we decided to hop back on US 166 and reposition. Unfortunately we became confused after driving through Arkansas City and then south and were forced onto a E/W dirt road on the state line. Regardless, we were in for a treat as the storm had just fully cycled for a third time and was on it's fourth occlusion. We sat and watched a great mothership for awhile before deciding to drop it (fail) due to its gusty, ragged appearance under the updraft.

After watching the storm spin harmlessly we decided to drop it initially and make a play at the storm that had shot off the dryline earlier. After realizing there was no way we were making that storm by dark (it was closing on 8:30) we stopped at a second severe storm to the west of the Arkansas City supercell. We watched a blood red sun drop beneath the updraft before the storm went completely cool and outflowy.

We made our way back to 35 and stopped at Braum's to grab some food where we learned of our mistake. A large elephant trunk had gone meandering SE near Cedar Vale, KS just before dark on the cycle immediately after we left the storm. Not the best way to end a chase, but it certainly didn't take anything away from the awesomeness we had seen before.

On our way back to Norman, we made a 10 minute stop to photograph lightning just east of Mulhall and got some great crawler action. A great chase day for this late in the season and an unexpected one at that. Here's hoping for more October greatness next month.

Chase Stats
Tornadoes: 0
Largest Hail: None
Highest Winds: 25 mph (inflow)
Miles Driven: 328.5
Cost: $27

A Strange Season to Behold

Sorry about the lack of updates, there's been little to talk about up until now. 2014 finally spat out the monsters everyone seems to have been searching for this season and let loose on eastern Nebraska the past several days. The Pilger twins followed by the Stanton wedge the next day and some big tornadoes in South Dakota the day after have made the season for many people. Unfortunately, Pilger was devastated as one of the multiple EF4s that the supercell produced tracked through the heart of town. A very sad event which could have been extraordinary if it had avoided towns completely. My thoughts are with the victims for the coming trials of attempting to rebuild and move on.

I don't hold much hope for being able to get anything great severe storms-wise during the remainder of my time at home but hopefully I'll be surprised by a stationary front with massive instability come early August. That or the fall season will have to come to my rescue, because I haven't seen anything worth much this season besides some elevated poop storms in one of my many forays into north Texas in and around Wichita Falls, an ok supercell between Cisco and Coleman, TX in mid-March and a mean shelf with some greenage. All in all, this is turning out to be a not so great year, despite my  multiple attempts in April to see something decent. The number of days that shallow moisture ruined is absolutely insane. I've chased SW OK/N Texas around from SPS to LAW four times this year and don't have jack to show for it. The Panhandle failed to do anything of note for the first half of the season which left me unable to get out to my favorite chase country of the Great Plains. Maybe October will be kind and come through for me a third year running. Only time will tell.

Early Derecho Season?

It's May 17th, the Plains have been dead excluding May 10/11th and it looks like a derecho setup may already appear. The most recent 12/00Z runs of the GFS have been painting very compact NW flow across the Midwest with decently high instability and low-level moisture across IL/IN/OH. In short, it looks like we've skipped May here and gone straight into the derecho season that usually doesn't start until mid-June. I won't complain though, I'm eager to redeem the past two derecho day failures around here and hopefully next Wednesday provides.

High-Based Hailers & State of the Chase Season Address

After weeks of futility I finally managed to wander into a severe thunderstorm. Yesterday provided some very nice high-based supercells in western Oklahoma/northwest Texas with quite the lightning show after dark. Cj and I left Norman for an initial target of Sayre with generally low expectations. While moisture return ended up being better than what had been progged, it appeared to be very shallow throughout the boundary layer. The other issue was the weak capping, leading to everything going up once instead of what should have been a widely-scattered structure day. After a brief stop in Sayre, convection initiated just off to our southwest near Wellington on the dryline. The storm grew pretty rapidly considering the modest thermodynamic environment and quickly went severe warned. We moved west to Erick before dropping south on OK 30. We initially were fooled by a scud bomb that had gone off right under the updraft base (the hope still finds a way out somehow), but after sitting and watching the storm for about 15 minutes we quickly ascertained that it had a base higher than the Rockies. We continued south, pausing to take in what had become a very pretty high-based supercell. The storm also had a pretty cool descending hail core just to the right of the updraft tower which made for some great views. Unfortunately my camera decided it didn't want to be of any use and I ended up with really crappy, light-washed images. We eventually continued down to OK 9 and headed east towards Vinson in a desperate search for gas (a Mustang does not get great gas mileage on state roads, who knew?). Although we didn't find gas until Mangum, we did run into two friends from OU and ended up caravaning with them for the rest of the day. We briefly stopped outside Reed to take some photos of the storm as it grunged out with more crapvection going up on all sides of it. during our gas stop in Mangum, we decided to abandon the storm for two coming out of north Texas that were 50 miles south of Vernon. We hauled it south out of Mangum to Duke and cut to Altus for the river crossing. Initially unsure of which storm to pick when we got across the river, we watched the western cell's base for a bit and became convinced the eastern storm had more to offer. In the end, either choice would have worked. Neither had much better structure than the other (although the western storm did have an interesting look to it as we left it behind). Regardless, the eastern storm was a beautiful sight with the sun setting just behind the FFD. 

State of the Chase Season

Well there's no way to really start this without saying one thing: this season has sucked. When I mean sucked, I mean it has been the worst chase season since David Hoadley started chasing way back during the early stages of the Cold War. The lack of not only tornadoes but supercells in general has been appalling. We're currently sitting at 64 tornado reports grand total for the months of March and April, with 11 in the "Traditional" Alley. My home state of Ohio has more tornadoes that Oklahoma currently and it's April 24th. While that will most certainly change this weekend, the trends have not been good. Just as every previous setup to date, the models have gone from singing high-praise to just absolutely shredding it. A mere 48 hours ago, the ECMWF and GFS were all-in on what looked to be a pretty spectacular severe weather event setting up across the central Great Plains. By today, the GFS has flip-flopped to the NAM's side with questionable moisture, capping and weak forcing for ascent all appearing along the dryline through southern Kansas into Oklahoma. It's starting to look like a distinct possibility that I will manage to not see a tornado in my brief time left on the Plains (exam week is coming in two weeks). My only hope if this weekend continues to trend down is the vaunted June period of the season back in the Midwest. While it's often ridiculed and ignored by the multitude of Plains chasers, I'd be surprised if an exodus east for some of the higher-end derecho days happened. Desperation can do some crazy things to people in this hobby. 

With any luck, Saturday/Sunday will eke out a decent tube somehwere in Oklahoma or Kansas, otherwise it looks like I'm destined to have a repeat of my horrible 2013 nightmare year. 

This Week's System: Sir Busts A Lot

Wow what a crappy week for chasing this turned out to be. Brady, Zack Allen and I left Norman around two with an initial target of Waurika. Lack of appreciable forcing along the dryline/triple point doomed this day from the start. We sat at a truck stop in Waurika and watched as tower after tower shot upwards before toppling over and getting shredded. Many a healthy TCu was lost Tuesday. The only upside were the people I had a chance to meet in person for the first time, including Craig Maire, Chris Hayes, Mike Scantlin, Andrew Newcomb, and Evan Hatch as well as running into Blaize Edwards.  All that was salvaged was a little bit of dignity as we only had to make an hour and forty-five minute drive from Waurika back to Norman. The only supercell of the day ended up going just SW of Abilene, and went through the same area we had been two weeks earlier. It spat out some very nice structure and a few wall clouds near Throckmorton from what I've seen in terms of pictures so far. The bust itself wasn't so bad, but more what it portended for the next two days.

The next day would just end up rubbing more salt in the wound. A very moist, unstable airmass was situated squarely over all of western and central Oklahoma with the dryline slowly advancing out of the TX PH. A pretty stout cap was in place per the 12Z OUN sounding and most hi-res models had the only storms of the day breaking up along the warm front/triple point in the evening. The displaced dynamics for this day put out a red flag early, but it still looked like any storm that could maybe just get a whisper of life along the dryline in western OK would go crazy. Unfortunately, the only storms of the day ended up riding the north side of the warm front, with one of them having a nicely structured updraft and multiple gustnadoes before sunset. We were in no position to even get close to it and decided to call the chase around Kingfisher instead of continuing north any further. All attempts at TCu further west fizzled leaving us with a patchy cirrus deck and a juicy, untapped airmass. A lack of any trigger really killed the potential further south. Just goes to show how different a dryline day in April is compared to a dryline day in May.

Meanwhile in north Texas at Denton, there's a tornadic supercell about to cross I-35. 2014 not off to the best of starts.

Decent Precipitation Chances Today

For what feels like the first time in a very long time, SW OK/SE TX PH have a chance to pick up a decent amount of measurable rainfall. A decent amount of precip is moving through NW TX/E PH with smaller showers out ahead in W OK/SW OK. A few days of this could go a long way.